Uruguay vs Portugal Betting Tips
- Updated: 28th June 2018
Uruguay vs Portugal – 2018 World Cup : “Heroes of the sea, noble race, Valiant and immortal nation!”
Careful with your hearts, because the suffering for Uruguayan and Portuguese fans.
This is a knock-out match and Portugal got matched against Uruguay!
It is certain that wasn’t the best draw for them, but they deserved it. The draw against Carlos Queiroz’s Iran allowed Spain to face Russia and the Portuguese to face Uruguay.
They had the opportunities and they could have “closed out” the match, but no, they’ve missed a penalty and allowed Iran to “grow”.
Basically, that’s the story of their last match that ensured their presence on this stage, but forget all of that, now things will be different, it is time to step up.
The match will be played in “Russia’s Algarve” – Sochi, where they are mostly known for the beach and the temperature,
which tends to be pleasant, but the humidity is expected to be high at the time of the match, around 79%. The temperature should be around 27 to 22ºC at game time, and some wind is also expected.
This is a pitch that the Portuguese side is already used to and that they already know what to expect.
I also want to report that Portugal doesn’t usually go to the stadium to adapt, they leave that for the warm-up.
It’s strange, in my opinion, since the pitches have been proving they’re fundamental on the matches and have some impact. I will expect the pitch to be watered before the match and at half-time.
The temperatures and the fatigue of the matches has been forcing FIFA to opt for that decision.
An already slightly worn out pitch isn’t as quick, and I believe that might have less than an impact that what we’ve seen, which means
Portugal can benefit from that.
We all agree that Portugal hasn’t played well at all. They haven’t had a single match that we can argue that they’ve looked reliable.
I would say and risk that the match against Spain was the best one and I would also add the first half against Iran.
Other than that, nothing. The match against Morocco was one to forget and now everything will have to be different.
In my opinion as a bettor, the problem of this match will be what’s going through Fernando Santos’ mind. I know he prepares himself very well for matches, I know he knows who he will “face” and who can he count with.
But to decide, we would have to be flies and guess what Fernando Santos will do. But everything will have constraints, since we know, and we’ve seen that the physical conditions of the Portuguese side aren’t the best.
William is slow, like everyone could see.
The wing backs are a bit worse than what we could see on the EURO. The question is that is precisely our weak point, that Uruguay will
certainly try to explore, especially the left side, Rafael Guerreiro’s side.
For that, I believe that F. Santos will once again utilize Adrien, to try and put a stop to Uruguay’s power.
That utilization of Adrien might also serve to be more prepared to what Uruguay will present on their midfield.
Uruguay changed their tactical scheme against Russia, where they preferred to use the triangle method.
All because Uruguay wasn’t working well during the first matches of the group stage. Against Russia the triangle in midfield worked out well and Uruguay got a comfortable victory.
Obviously, William and Adrien aren’t enough to make the first pressure near the midfield.
I believe he will also utilize Gonçalo Guedes. We know that CR7 doesn’t defend but Guedes has shown that he knows how to help at the back and he can be the first piece of the team to defend.
Speaking about defending, I don’t think that neither Pepe nor Fonte are responsible for the goals against Spain and that goal against Iran.
I see them doing well on matches, with one or the other standing out, and they balance each other out well.
The question of these central defenders is when they have to compensate for the wing backs, and I’ve already said that can be the weak aspect for the team.
With William and Adrien lower on the pitch, I believe they will have more help, even going to the wings to compensate, both William and Adrien might compensate the breaches in the middle of the box.
All of that will have to be made simply. The markings and the compensations have to work without falter. If they falter, Cavani and Suarez might appear on the box with triangulations and find space to try to score.
Knowing F. Santos as I do, he knows and is aware that he can’t fight toe to toe with Uruguay. If he does it, he knows that the team will be exposed and taking unnecessary risks.
I believe that the approach will be more similar to the one Portugal had on the EURO, more defensive, apprehensive and even allowing
Uruguay to have more ball.
I might be talking nonsense, because we know that, if Uruguay have the ball, they will want to play their game and that can be costly for Portugal.
But that will be the idea: to contain and then look to pounce on the counter-attack, to catch Uruguay on the back-foot.
They should focus to put the ball on CR7 and even Ricardo Quaresma I would risk, since obviously Cedric won’t push up the field that much, which means Ricardo can be kind of alone on the wing,
with no support. But the idea isn’t having supported football but more having two “arrows” on the wings to run with the ball, dribble and even shoot or center.
The question is that on this scheme, Gonçalo will also have to be quick and look to escape marking or drag the defenders so that Ricardo or CR7 may appear.
Uruguay’s defence isn’t bad but on situations like this, they are somewhat “shaky” and they are clueless regarding how and where to mark, because they aren’t on their natural habitat.
I believe that Fernando Santos will utilize this tactic on the match. I believe he will utilize what he has best to complicate Uruguay’s plans. If Portugal start being quick and assertive when going on the attack, they might force Uruguay to be more cautious.
In order for all of that to work, William has to be faster, on the passes, and with Adrien by his side, he may occupy different places to launch the game and go on the attack. From what I’ve seen, the ball, in transition, always goes through William.
Basically, all will depend on the way F. Santos sets the team up and the doubts are if Guedes plays, if Ricardo Quaresma or Bernardo Silva play. Moutinho should be an essential piece, in my opinion.
The ideal in my opinion would be seeing what I’ve kept saying above: a team more prepared for the counter-attack than to have the ball, manage the possession and look for a continued attack.
I believe that the approach will really be banking on the quickness and catching the Uruguayan defence on the back-foot.
An idea that doesn’t stop creeping in my mind, and that’s why I don’t leave here any possible starting 11 for Portugal, is that F.Santos will bring a surprise to the starting line-up. I just have to figure out who will be the trick up Fernando Santos’ sleeve.
I’ll start off speaking about the danger of Suarez and Cavani: two men to mark by the Portuguese defence, and the doubt is: Will the triangle continue? Will they go back to the scheme utilized before the match against Russia?
I believe that the triangle won’t appear with the same job it had against Russia, but if a more complicated situation appears, that triangle will be built.
Uruguay will explore Portugal’s wings, look for possible flaws on the marking, but I believe that they will be surprise by Fernando Santos.
They will make more of the same, always expecting Cavani or Suarez to solve. If Cavani still hasn’t appeared, Suarez has already!
The crosses will also be the approach utilized by Uruguay, looking for the long balls to head it towards goal.
H2H – No previous meetings
Uruguay vs Portugal – Betting Tip and Prediction:
I expect a high-level match here, where my betting emotions and my Portuguese emotions will be running high.
Obviously, it is complicated to separate the two things, but I think that we will have a match that can go beyond the 90 minutes.
I see that the VAR might have as much or even more influence from now on. The VAR will be more decisive, so the teams will have to be really careful.
I see that, with patience and without flaws, and even playing poorly, Portugal will be able to run the clock, and with the strategy of advancing quick on the counter-attack and taking advantage of the set pieces, dug and taken by CR7, they might reach the goal.
I won’t go with “Both teams to score” since that is very risky on a knock-out match. The odds are good but I don’t fancy it.
I will only be able to explore the AH 0 / Draw No Bet.
Portugal might have the ability to win on the 90 minutes, playing with a lot of cynicism, and even if that doesn’t go well, we might be protected, in case the match isn’t decided on the 90 minutes.
Uruguay’s undefinition on the midfield trio, triangle or not, might cause some confusion and Portugal will take advantage of that, and I will also add the “trick up his sleeve” that Fernando Santos will probably use.
From a betting perspective and not a Portuguese one, but with out lucky status of European champions in mind, Portugal can and should get through this Uruguay, that depends too much on Cavani and Suarez.
That way, I will go with:
|Betting Tips and Prediction||Odd||Bookmaker||Status|
|Portugal AH 0|