Trading on Football
- Updated: 3rd August 2017
I’m going to explain a Football Trading System that I’ve been using pretty successfully
For someone that wants to try this system, I advise you to use small stakes in the beginning and if you really can apply it successfully, than you should increase gradually.
I’ll warn you already that this is no “Holy Grail” and that this isn’t a miraculous system.
In the beginning of the match and after a brief analysis of the odds, I’ll make the traditional “Lay the Draw”
Then, I’ll back the under 2.5 goals selection, doing it in a 60/40 proportion, i.e. 60% on laying the draw and 40% on the under 2.5 goals market.
Normally I don’t use this on matches where the odds for Under 2.5 are lower than 1.90 and I also avoid laying the draw when the odds are higher than 4.0, but sometimes i will push this limit up to 4.5, depending on the teams.
When the game starts, the under 2.5 goals odd moves faster in their decline than the odd of the draw, which allows us to make a profit even if the game is 0-0 at halftime.
If there aren’t any 1st half goals, then this system is basically flawless
Now we’ll go into the good stuff. If the match is being played between two balanced teams where there aren’t any odds lower than 2.0 in the Match Odds market, the ideal situation is to go until 15/20 minutes of the match time and, if there aren’t any goals up until that time, we come out with a profit of 5/7€ (considering stakes of 100€, and using the 60/40 rule)…
If eventually any of the teams score, the draw odds will go up and allows us to cover the loss we will have on the under 2.5 market. Besides that, it is almost certain that we will profit 1/3€ and, in the worst case scenario, we come out with a loss of a few cents.
If the match is between two unbalanced teams, then it is different. If the favourite scores 1st, no matter when he scores, we will always have good profit. The draw odds’ movement will protect the losses from the under 2.5 market, and our profit will be on average around 15/40€.
Now onto the bad part. What if the underdog scores first?
That’s right… Well, if the underdog scores first, you need to take the loss, and cut those losses as soon as you can…
The Draw odds will remain practically the same, and can even go down a few ticks, so we won’t have any profit to cover our losses caused by the increase of the under 2.5 goals odd. Our losses will be around 15/30€ then.
To maximize the profits in this system, the ideal scenario is for the first goal to be scored around the 35/45 minute mark. That is, because the under 2.5 odd would rise just a little bit, and be close to the initial price we took before the match. In that case, all we had to do was lay the under 2.5, and we would get some cents of either profit/loss.
With under 2.5 dealt with, all we have to do is take the profit from the Match Odds market, caused by the increase of the draw odds that occurred after the goal. In this case, the profit will be higher if the favourite scores this first goal. If the underdog scores it, the losses will be meaningless and very small.
We advise you to always close the trades at the end of the 1st half. Riskier bettors can go up until the 60th minute, but after that the variation of the under 2.5 odd won’t be enough to cover the decrease of the draw odds, so we would be in the red (loss) almost certainly.
As soon as the 1st goal is scored, I usually wait 30 seconds/1 minute so that the market settles down, and then I close my trade.
Here’s an example of a successful trade in Football performed on Betfair:
In this match between Barcelona and Huelva (unbalanced teams) I’ve closed my bets at 44 minutes into the game and 0-0 with about 13€ profit. Barcelona ended up scoring at minute 52. If i had waited until then, the profit would be around 50€…
I will now wait for your opinions and feedback regarding this method!