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Trading – Time Bomb

Trading – Time Bomb

That’s right, i was also surprised because I read a lot about trading but I had never heard of “Time bomb”.

In fact, I don’t even know if it exists, because I’ve only found this expression on a Spanish blog. I’ve already searched on Google but I haven’t found nothing, all results lead to that same blog.

There’s a way of trading that relies solely on the odds’ variation over time. For example:

  • Backing “Under 2.5 goals” and waiting a few minutes before laying it again, therefore closing the trade in profit.
  • Backing the 0-0 and after some time closing the trade in profit by laying the 0-0.

That same blog refers to this kind of trading as timed trading.

Now, let’s talk about the time bomb. I don’t know if you have noticed but over the course of a football match, the odds don’t vary continuously. The Spaniards give the following example:

On the over/under 2.5 Goals market, if you notice, there’s little to almost no variation on the odds during the first 10 minutes. However, between the period of 11-20 minutes, there is a bigger variation.

When we arrive to the half hour mark, the variation is maximum. To this time period where there is a huge swing in the odds’ variation speed, we call “Time bomb”.

“Time bomb” is a funny term but what is it good for? The answer is easy. Imagine that you want to do time trading on the over/under 2.5 goals market and you are given 2 options:

  • Betting between minutes 1-15 in order to get a variation of 0.4 on the odds.
  • Betting between minutes 40-45 in order to get the same variation of 0.4 on the odds.

Which would you prefer? On the 2nd option, we need only 5 minutes to get the same variation, since we have the said “Time bomb”. Therefore, from the risk point of view, the 2nd option is less risky since we need less time to close our trade in profit.

Of course that determining the time bomb requires some experience and we need to take into consideration some factors, such as:

  • Teams’ goal scoring prowess
  • Goal chances over the course of the match we’re trading on

To be fair, I’ve been taking advantage of these big swings on the odds’ variation, but I didn’t know how to call them. Therefore, I leave here a strategy that I normally use:

Laying the draw at the start of the match (low risk)

Have you ever noticed the “Draw” odds’ variation on a football match? Just like in the Over/Under 2.5 Goals market, they almost don’t change during the first 15 minutes.

What I usually do is lay the draw and as soon as my bet is matched, I back the draw at odds a tick higher than my lay bet. If I see my bet isn’t going to be matched, i cancel the bet (Scratch bet) or I cut my losses.

When this method is well executed, we have two possible outcomes:

  • We get a goal and we close the trade on a big profit
  • We close the trade on small profit for every time we do this

There are some things that we need to keep in mind:

  • Applying this method in matches where there is strong liquidity (Premier League, Barça’s matches or Real matches are some of which I usually like to use this method on)
  • Don’t apply this method on matches where there is a clear favorite. It can be a limitation if you want to lay the draw.
  • Be aware of how the game is going, because at any moment there can be a “time bomb” and the odds for the draw come crashing down
  • Sometimes I get a few losses with this strategy. So, on those cases, when I see a time bomb approaching, I back and then wait for the odds to drop, in order to close my trade on a profit.

According to what I’ve read, it seems like Peter Webb hands out a table with the ideal odds value according to the current match time and result.

If anyone has access to any of those tables I would appreciate it if they shared it here. It would be really helpful to determine the time bomb or even to know if the odds have value or not.

It would be a great topic for discussion: “How to know if a certain odd, during the match, has value or not?”

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