Odds movement – theory and practice
- Updated: 12th March 2019
Today we have another technical betting article, speaking about Odds movement. The odds movement is normally a more technical aspect.
On a first approach, odds movement is easy to understand, because it means that the “odds are moving”. But to where?
Odds movement: Let’s get to it!
The odds open at certain value, and until the beginning of the event, they keep shifting on the market.
That shift might be caused by news, small liquidity, misadjusted odds and a lot of other aspects.
I’ve only mentioned these ones because they are the most interesting ones and we’ll try to explain the concept.
We should keep in mind that it is very hard to understand why that movement occurs.
That’s the “struggle”, finding out if it is about some news, or if it is because of a large amount of money that went into the market.
To follow those movements, nothing better than having a good platform that allows you to check those movements, and there are several ones, accessible through a simple google search.
For that, we have to be attentive, and nothing better than seeing where the money is going in on that match.
A high amount of capital might not be a good reference point, because you have to keep in mind that a lot of bettors truly “hit” the odds in order for them to go in the direction they want them to.
This topic is complex. It is certain that later we will try to explain this concept, that could almost take another technical article.
Well, getting back on topic, the odds’ movements might give the bettor a lot of information.
The news that a team will play with their reserves, or starters, or if they will have a cup or Champions League match midweek might have a lot of impact on the odds.
Sometimes, to give an example, the manager, at the press conference, states that he will rest some players, which means he isn’t giving it a lot of importance.
Then, almost instantly sometimes, we see the odds moving to the right place.
We should see the team that will rest some players probably having their odds increased because they are less likely to win.
A brief approach, about this. A professional bettor and with a somewhat large bankroll might place a wager on a specific market.
With that, if the market still doesn’t have a lot of liquidity, he can lower the odds and move the Asian line for example.
A lot of professional bettors do this, in order to get ahead of the market.
This situation only really happens with large bankrolls, and with a high degree of experience, completely discouraged for a newbie.
This movement, and now understanding why might be fake and it can trick some because people don’t know who and how and with how much money did move the market.
When a match isn’t very interesting for bettors, the bookmaker tends to offer better conditions, in order to “catch” their attention.
Because of that, the bookmaker itself can adjust the odds, in order to attract more bettors’ money.
A lot of times, if a bookmaker moves in that sense, others will mimic it and do the exact same thing.
Normally, the odds will go up in every market.
Not everything will have an explanation behind a certain odds movement, sometimes it can be natural.
Let’s say that the odds/lines might go up or down because that is a natural trend for that market.
Let’s say that the odds/lines keep dropping, for example, because a lot of the bettors believe in that outcome for that sporting event.
In order to get a better fell, just follow the odds and check throughout the day of the event, to see it dropping until it loses value.
Odds’ opening on the European bookmakers and then on the Asian ones
This movement is common in almost every event. We will explain:
The European bookmakers are the first ones to open the odds for the events.
Only later do the Asian bookmakers open their lines, and the European ones automatically adjust.
That can give a false sense of movement, but no. It’s only the European bookmakers adjusting to the Asian ones.
Normally, a bettor that likes to take advantage of fresh odds ends up taking advantage of this disadvantage of the European bookmakers.
I believe this might be confusing, but it is hard to explain any other way. But now, let’s explain how a bettor can take advantage of the odds’ movement!
An experienced bettor, observes and analyses the match he wants to bet on. He follows the opening of the odds on European bookmakers and then he waits for the opening of the Asian bookmakers.
This natural adjustment can offer the bettor a nice profit.
Normally, the Asian lines are better adjusted than the European ones. An experienced bettor can spot where the “value/maladjustment” is and can take advantage of that.
A quick trend of odds’ decrease can lead to two things: either a Hit in the market or some hot news that can change the course of the match.
Here we advise the bettor to look for news or that through the several tools available on the internet see if there has been a huge hit on the market or not.
Many defend that following the odds is a time-consuming and not very rewarding task, others only do this.
As in everything, opinions are different, but if it can be rewarding in any way, it should always be worth considering.
The odds’ movement might also help the “betting newbies”.
Let’s say that the bettor thinks about betting on a determined outcome, he then checks and sees that the odds for that outcome have been dropping.
That means that, normally, or generally, his “thought process” might even be correct.
Normally, I tell myself, if I think like this and the odds are gradually dropping, that means I’m not the only one thinking that’s the right outcome, so that reinforces my idea.
On a side note, but that has a lot to do with the Odds movement – You should never, ever, make or decide not to make a bet just because some of these changes are taking place.
These analysis of odds’ movement should only be another tool and not a decisive factor.
You should always consider the odds’ movement as an integral part of your study/analysis of a certain event.
Never use this system on its own, or don’t stop yourself from making your bet only because the odds are moving in the opposite way.
We hope we have been enlightening because a lot more was there to be explained and with more detail, but let’s save the details for the next articles.
For now, keep these principles in mind, and keep looking and checking some of the aspects that we present here and make your own analysis or reading of the facts being presented here