Martingale in Online Betting
- Updated: 9th October 2019
The main objective when betting on sports, is to be profitable, and our dream when getting into this world is somehow finding an automated way, utilizing infallible methods. Martingale in Online Betting is one of those strategies and it is really popular amongst new bettors. Below I’ll give the definition and my opinion regarding this method.
What is martingale applied to sports betting?
The Martingale is a very popular tool amongst bettors, independently of the analysis, to try and bank a profit, always with a progression of the money invested.
It is a very old strategy, back in ancient Europe when people used to bet coins. The “heads or tails” game is a game where there only 2 possible outcomes, and in theory, if you played it, you would have a 50% chance of winning.
That way, the bettor would always choose the same side, always doubling the betting value when the previous bet was lost, understanding that at some point his choice would have to be correct, due to the probabilities.
In a clearer way, this betting method is based on increasing your stake, every time you lose a bet.
The idea is betting on the same market, always doubling your stake, looking to be in profit when you win your selection and cover your previous losses.
Example on 1xBet
Over 0.5 Goals at half-time – 2.00 | Under 0.5 Goals at half-time – 1.90
The ideal would be always betting on markets with the line equal or superior to 2.00, but the rule is the same. Let’s say you bet on the “Over” selection with a value of 10€ and your bet is lost.
10€ x 2.00 = -10.00€
On the next event or line selected, you should double your stake, in equal or superior odds, and repeat this method until your selection is a winner.
Let’s say that, on that same match, you wait until the odds for the “Over 0.5 Goals” selection reaches the same odds of the first half, now in the 2nd half, and this time your selection is a winner.
20.00€ x 2.00 = 40€ gross returns
We subtract your stake (20.00) and the value of your previous lost selection (10.00) and at the end we will have a profit of 10.00€.
This method can be employed in any market that offers you 2 options, and in theory you have a 50% chance of winning. Lines like the “Over/Under” of goals, fouls, penalties, etc.
The important is understanding that at the end of the day, you should have a profit, however slightly, until your bet is a winner. Which means, the smaller the odds are, the less profit you will have.
And if the odds are lower than 2.00, what happens?
It’s simple math. If I bet 10€ on a selection with 1.50 odds and I lose, the method forces me to bet 20€ on the same odds the next time.
If I bet 20€ on 1.50 odds, I’ll have a gross return of 30€, and subtracting the investment on the current bet (20€) and the previous stake that was lost (10€), at the end of the day I’m left with the same money I’ve started with.
Basically, betting on the same market, in odds equal or higher than the previous ones. The higher the odds are on the bookmakers, the bigger your potential returns can be, however, the riskier it is as well.
It is important to be said that this method forces you to double your stake every time until you win, and when you manage to win, you return to your original stake.
Example on Bet365:
10€ x 1.80 = Lost (-10€)
20€ x 1.80 = Lost (-30€)
40€ x 1.80 = Lost (-70€)
80€ x 1.80 = Lost (-150€)
160€ x 1.80 = Won | Gross returns of 288.00€
288€ – 160€ (invested amount) = 128.00€
128€ – 150€ (lost amount) = -22.00€
See that on this example, since the odds were lower than 2.00, we end up losing overall, when the streak of lost bets is large. That way, you can utilize this method defining the amount you want to win instead of the amount you have to invest.
Advantages and risks of the Martingale method in sports betting
The “advantage” would be that at some point, you would have a profit overall.
The concept of this method is that you can’t always lose, and that’s true, because due to the odds, at some point on a two-options market, you will win.
But the huge disadvantage is that at some point your bankroll will be gone.
Sooner or later, you will go bankrupt! Why?
Well, firstly, can you say with 100% certainty that you won’t lose 5,7 or 10 times in a row? The possibilities are small but if it happens, you will lose all your money.
Your bankroll would have to be extremely high, because with just a small streak of losses, no matter how small your initial stake was, it rapidly requires a huge portion or your entire bankroll.
Initial stake: 10.00€ (1% of the bankroll)
10€ – 20€ – 40€ – 80€ – 160€ – 320€ = 630,00€ invested in 6 bets.
On this simple scenario of facing a streak of 6 losses, you’ve lost more than half your money, and you would have no way of doubling your stake, since the next step would require 640.00€.
I, particularly, don’t recommend this method.
It is a huge risk with a very small return. You can win your 10€ on your first bet, or maybe on the 3rd or 4th and secure some profit.
But the question is: Is it worth the risk of losing all your money to win a bit more than 10.00€?
Each person has its own strategy, and each person decides how they bet at their own will and in a way they’re comfortable.
If your bankroll is very high or very low, with very few lost bets, you lose everything.
I can’t be sure that there isn’t the possibility of losing a couple of times in a row, what about you?