LayDraw with protection on the “Time of First Goal” market
- Updated: 30th August 2017
Before starting i need to point out that this is not a new strategy.
However, I’ve decided to study and analyse it now in my own way, since I’ve had some test matches that worked out well.
For me, the recipe for success on this well-known LayDraw method is on the match selection.
Working with matches where a high number of goals is expected, the existence of a slight favourite that usually scores first and draw odds to lay no higher than 4 are the key aspects to search for in a match in order to have a higher chance of success even before the match starts, since during the 90 minutes anything can happen.
What do I mean with slight favourite?
I will give an example: Aston Villa vs Man Utd
For me, in this match we have a slight favourite, because Man Utd, in “normal conditions” is, and always will be, a favourite going into a match against Aston Villa.
The odds for a Man Utd win will never be under 2.00 before the start of the match, the lay the draw never higher than 3.75 and we can always expect Man Utd to score first.
We shouldn’t lay the draw at odds higher than 4?
This question is about personal preference and the answer is variable. Each person knows on which games they adapt best, what bankroll they have and what risk exposure they feel comfortable working with.
Sometimes I go in on matches with higher odds, up to a maximum of 4.6. But those matches must be matches where I expect a potential beating from the favourite team and where I think there won’t be an exponential increase in risk, that is, a match like Málaga vs Real Madrid, where Real is going for the win and with their starting 11, has value for me, despite laying the draw at higher odds.
This way, the first step of this method is laying the draw, pre-live.
Example: Lay the draw at 3.4 odds, with a stake of 70€. In this situation, we would end up with the following values, after commission, on the “Match Odds” market:
Team A – 66.57€
Team B – 66.57€
Draw – (-168.00€)
The second step is about the protection we will use on this method.
There are a lot of ways to protect this LayDraw. However, the one I use on this method is backing two selections on the “Time of First Goal” market, that is only open before the start of the match, because the odds available are relatively high.
This protection aspect also depends on each person’s profile, because each better needs to decide the percentage of responsibility they want to protect, which can be 50%, 60%,70%, etc. Me personally, I usually protect between 75% and 85% of my liability.
Warning: This protection serves to protect from a possible 0-0 or a late goal. However, our analysis has the objective of only betting on matches that we expect to be high-scoring.
Now, considering the values used previously, let’s go into the “Time of First goal” market and back the selections “71-80 minutes” and “81-End of the match”.
71-80 Minutes @28 5.5€ profit of 135.52€
81- End of Match @26 6€ profit of 137.42€
With these values placed on “back” we would end up with the profit referred on those selections, and a red of 11.50€ in all the others.
This way we are ready to go into the match.
Now we have the trading aspect of each one of us.
These values can be adapted according to the posture we expect to have in front of the market. This way, I’ll give you some options we can choose, because I think it is more important than telling you what I usually do (which also varies):
- We might not place such a high amount on LayDraw pre-live and then strengthen our position in the first minutes of the match, when the odds are decreasing;
- Over the course of the match, sometimes it is useful to back one of the teams, if the odds are too high according to our analysis;
- When the 1st goal from the favourite team happens, not closing our trade immediately but instead waiting for half-time;
- When the 1st goal from the favourite team is scored, partially laying that same team, taking advantage of the low odds and reducing our liability on the draw;
- When the favourite team scores the 1st goal, making a green book splitting the profit by the 3 different outcomes by backing the draw;
- When the non-favourite scores, admit the red and cut our losses immediately, exiting that match;
- When the non-favourite scores, trying to back the draw with 50% of the initial stake as soon as the market re-opens and then lay the non-favourite with 75% of the stake
- There are countless positions to take in the market, however, only each bettor, individually, with the help of his in-play analysis can take them.
To conclude, I’ll now explain why you should maybe use point 7.) previously mentioned and how to use the protection if the match stays 0-0.
What happens if you opt to apply what I suggested on point 7?
If you decide to go down this path, you would end up with: a reduced loss on the underdog or, according to the odds at that moment, a small green; you would also have reduced the high liability you had on draw; and you also optimize the profit if the favourite can comeback.
This way, and if the game ends in a draw, it will be possible to profit with every option.
How to use the protection if the match stays 0-0?
Using the protection will also depend on each bettor’s decisions and in this case, I’ll explain my thought process.
If I get to half-time with a match still 0-0 and in my opinion the match is very weak, without goal chances, and the favourite is underperforming, I usually back the draw with 50% of my stake, as way to reduce my liability on the draw, and also reducing my profit in case there’s a goal between minute 45 and minute 71.
On the start of the 2nd half, I analyse the match again, and if the same situation maintains, I’ll gradually exit the market with 5€ stakes.
Now, we have arrived at minute 71, what happens?
From this moment onwards, if there’s a goal, we are winning 135€ or 137€ from the “Time of First Goal” market. Therefore, we should back the draw, in order to get, for example, with the following values:
- Team A – (-120€)
- Team B – (-120€)
- Draw – 2.85€
This way, considering my personal decision when writing this text, if the game ends on a 0-0 draw, we’ll win 2.85€ but we would lose the 11.5€ we had invested on the “Time of First Goal” market, so we would have a slight loss.
If there is a goal during those periods, we would win the respective protection of the period in question and we would lose at most 120€ on the “Match Odds” market. However, if there is a goal and there is still time to go to that “Match Odds” market, we can split the red through all selections, probably losing a lot less than the 120€ and having ensured the profit thanks to the protection.
According to the analysis, you can also wait for 1-1 and then land a jackpot. It all depends on each person’s analysis and the moment the 1st goal is scored.
However, there are other scenarios that can be adopted at the 71st minute, that will depend on the decision, analysis and profile of each bettor, that will allow them to be exposed to other type of results. It all depends on the amount you use to back the draw at the 71st minute.