Late odds that harm bettors
- Updated: 29th October 2019
Today I bring a topic that plagues every bettor right now, and that harms us even more – the topic is: the late odds posted by the oddsmakers and the bookmakers!
Who is suffering heavily with these late odds from the bookmakers?
We are always dependent from the odds that are offered to us by the bookmakers, and they have all the “control”.
Without them, we can’t make our own choices, if the odds are “fair” of if there is value!
I’m certain that this issue leaves us very vulnerable upon the bookmakers, be it European or Asian! I won’t discuss details or dig deep here, but further ahead I will approach the late odds on the European bookmakers and Asian bookmakers as well, in order not to escape the “topic”.
I will make a slight introduction to the topic and explain why I’m speaking about this topic!
This situation has been taking place and being more usual especially at this stage where the European leagues are taking a break. The late odds of the less known markets or the late odds that are only posted almost at the same time as the starting line-ups, is nearly ridiculous!
This situation has been happening whether we are talking about the Brazilian Serie A or Serie B, whether we are talking about the more eccentric leagues like the J-League or the K-League.
On these last two ones, it’s completely absurd, because the odds are only out right before the start of the match.
Even in the Brazilian Serie A, the odds have been more delayed and when they are out, they are already very “tight” as I like to call them!
The bookmakers, since the end of the season, and speaking about leagues like the Portuguese one, Liga NOS, and the 2nd division, have been maintaining the “delay”, which leads us into believing there is something going on with these markets.
I see for example that in the Brazilian Serie A, the odds are tight, but still within the “minimum deadline”, but it depends a lot on the rounds or on what happened in the previous round.
I highlight that, on those rounds where the match involves teams that will play in the Copa Libertadores afterwards, the odds only appear later or will even be the last ones to be available, and, of course, with “zero” liquidity.
But we’ll get to that zero liquidity!
On the eccentric leagues as I call them, the odds often only appear very close to the start of the matches, speaking about the K-League 2 for example, and even more mediatic leagues as well. The most stable one of these leagues has been the J-League in terms of time the odds are posted at.
On the J-League, the odds are posted within a reasonable time frame, but it’s clear that when we go to the most eccentric leagues, the bookmakers struggle to “adjust” in advance.
I’ve also been seeing that the odds especially on the K-League and K-League 2, when they’re available, they are becoming better adjusted, being even more juiced if things went “south” on the previous round!
The control is on the hand of the bookmakers, I reach the conclusion that we are at their mercy, from the oddsmakers or the bookmakers.
This situation is really making us lose our patience, putting an end to our last stronghold as punters for example, because this is where we had our biggest “edge” over the bookmakers.
The bookmakers are even limiting on this regard, because we are more fragile than ever right now. Keep in mind I’m speaking about these leagues, because I believe that, when the Premier League returns, everything will be back to normal, but of course, everything is easier here, for us, for them and for the bookmakers!
Now let’s approach what I like to call “zero liquidity”.
Zero liquidity is when one of the European bookmakers posts odds with “adjusted” liquidity in order for us bettors to do their job for them!
Yes! With zero liquidity, where the bookmaker moves the money where they so desire, they are able to turn us into oddsmakers.
How? Let’s see, it not necessary to be very complex on the explanation, it’s only necessary to move the money or put super low limits on the Asian lines to understand where the mistake is and then adjust amongst the lines.
Let’s see an example: A European bookmaker like 1xbet opens the AH 0 line with 2.00 odds, and the bettor realizes that those odds are high, and those that are on the “lookout” notice that there is a mistake there, right?
And then magic happens. That bettor spots the mistake and puts a considerable stake down, because people who operate on these markets and in this fashion don’t utilize small stakes, and he is immediately warned that the bookmaker only accepts “X” value per bet or a single bet of “X” amount.
Well, isn’t that something.
We can’t even bet and capitalize on their mistakes and now, think globally, imagine that besides this bettor, there are 50 more doing exactly the same thing because they spotted a mistake.
What does the bookmaker do? They adjust the odds, limiting it even more and compensating on a different market, to force the Punters to find lines for example on the -0.25, which doesn’t offer that much value anymore.
With that, the bookmaker distributes the money, only making available the markets where there is a lower probability of having misadjusted odds, and with that they retain the money!
That’s right, moving the line, the bookmaker knows that the value is on the 0.0 Asian Handicap and those odds force many people to stretch the handicaps and with that expose themselves more, and that’s how the bookmaker takes money from our stakes!
Be aware of these movements, stretching where we shouldn’t and being tricked by this strategy employed by the bookmakers can leave us even more exposed!
Our problem is always not knowing what’s the liquidity that market can “handle” or offer. We never know the value that line has, its weight, we might make a guess, but it becomes a more difficult exercise on a slighter analysis.
A lot of the moves of the bookmakers can be understood thanks to the odds’ movements, not only by what the bettors are doing but by the seemingly inexplicable adjustments. But I’ll tell that there are people that don’t care about this.
There are bettors that don’t care about movements and odds and what makes them go from one line to the other is only a matter of pure preciousness.
I care about it.
I’m sorry but I like to understand what’s going on and a sudden movement of odds is always something to take into consideration, or why there’s a low limit on an Asian market. I’m sorry, but I have to understand why!
Sometimes these things that I think are “strange” force me to stay away from a potential initial entry that I had for that particular event. If the zero liquidity beats me, I’ll move on to the other match, or I move on to a different match I had analysed where I’m not so exposed or at the mercy of the bookmakers!
To finalize, this is an idea still under construction, that I’ve conveyed to you here and we can still notice some other details from here onwards.
Keep in mind that the top European clubs are making a lot of moves on their rosters and I believe that the odds on the first couple of rounds, with these teams in action, will be approached in the same way I’ve explained here.
Besides that, I just have to vent off here: friends, it’s getting more and more complicated to “make things work”. I can ensure you that these days it’s becoming harder and harder to bet, and especially with these strategies, managing to be profitable in the long term!
I expect that I’ve at least enlightened you to this issue, since it is complicated to understand the true reason, but from what I see and from experience, be it my own or other bettors’, I can reach this conclusion!
I’ll keep an eye out, take notes and especially be curious to know how and when the bookmakers will make their moves on the new season and what will be their initial strategy of approach, especially regarding the teams that made a lot of changes on their rosters.
I also bring attention to another aspect that are the managers, which changes the DNA of each team.
We’ll see the mistakes that the bookmakers will make, or not – Zero liquidity!
Honestly, I think not, with this zero liquidity, the bookmakers turn us into traders and oddsmakers and at the end, they still get a very good profit out of the match.
The fight is uneven, actually, but I highlight that on this field the bookmakers are using us to their own advantage and many of us are being tricked by this “bait”.
I honestly need to understand some details a bit better, knowing how and when, but I’ll get there, although I know the bookmakers are disguising more and more this issue of zero liquidity or fake liquidity, however you want to call it. If
I have more news ore alerts, there will be an article complementing this one with more information or more caution to have on this uneven fight.
Besides being at the mercy of the odds that they want to “offer”, understanding where the value lies on is now starting to become too difficult for us. Yes, the time and study is no longer enough, now we also need to figure out when the bookmakers are messing with the markets and tricking us!
That’s all for today and if there are any news, there will be another exclusive article on Insidebet just for you.
Greetings and of course good luck!