How to reach EV +
- Updated: 7th May 2018
EV + The expected value in bets!
Once again and going to meet the new online bettors, we come with this article to talk about a doubt that hits the bettors, especially those who come to this online world for the first time.
Today the theme is really the “Expected value”, the expected value for each bet, the acronym that often the bettors refer to EV +.
There are many definitions spread across the world wide web about this concept, mas we will try to explain this concept in another way, more simple and more affectively so that we can all comprehend and understand.
Meaning of EV + (Expect value per bet)
The translation is simple and I have mentioned it before, but many have also heard about the coin story, the heads or tails. We are going to tell you that story: If we throw a coin to the air, we have 50% chances to get heads and another 50% chances to get tails, right?
Very well, then the odds offered to this “event” would be Heads = 2.00 and Tails = 2.00.
We also know that if we throw the coin to the air many times, for example 1000 throws, 500 resulted in heads and another 500 resulted in tails. Correct?
Now lest “bet” one euro only in heads, through 500 throws, and we stay like this:
Heads: €1 (Stake) x 2.00 (Odds) x 500 (nº of heads) = €1.000 (Total Value) – €500 (Bet Value) = €500, this is our profit.
But attention, we lost the other 500 throws, correct? Now let’s calculate our losses:
Tails: €1 (Stake) x 500 (nº of tails) = €500, this was the value we lost.
Conclusion: We stay with the same, we lost 500 euros and won 500 euros, in the end there is no loss or gain. Correct?
Simulating these odds we conclude that, even with and odd of 2.00 we wouldn’t have any profit. The odds are directly proportional to the probability of your event. Here in this case we say that EV + in this very specific case is NULL!
With this simple reasoning, we can affirm, that every time we have our EV + on our side, in long term, we can have profit in our bets. This is in line with what is widely said, that bettors also lose their bets.
But what’s important is to have profit and mainly find the EV + in each of your bets, so that in the end we have profit, sometimes per month, per year, per season… whatever…
Now let’s try to find the EV +
Previous note: The bookmakers sometimes offer EV – (negative expected value) to their customers, and only by that it gets pretty hard to find the “infamous” positive value of the bet.
Here it’s also part of the bettor to look for what is the best bookmaker for him, at the level of odds offered, at the level of offered markets and also of what the bettor normally bets!
We have to retain an essential principle, who offers you the odds are the bookies, so and as everyone should know, they are not there to “give” you anything, or lose money.
Sometimes, and for that we will have to be very attentive, the bookies commit “mistakes” or don’t actualize the two odds on time. Still, we have already verified cases in which the bookie itself voids the bets on the reason that the odds were not well placed.
Now we will “fight” against the bookie and try to “draw” the EV + from our bet. A simple help, try to know more than the bookie. Hard, yes maybe, but many of the odds placed are “elaborated” by programs or advanced software and mainly loaded with statistics, old and recent. And now you say, very well, but how, but how?
Let’s go in parts, an attentive and dedicated bettor, becomes specialist mainly in two to three championships. It follows the daily life of the teams, the news of each team, the injured and especially what goes on around each game.
Let’s say the bettor is worse than a judge. The judge like in court listens to all involved parts, and the bettor does the same.
Reads all about the event he is going to bet, from players, possible injuries, each team physical form, the pitch, coach’s statements, news and then gives his final verdict (the BET).
A good way or example of how to find the EV +
Analyze a match, and put yourselves in the “skin” of a bookmaker. And give that sports event your odds, without knowing what the bookies offer before.
Now compare them with the bookies and try to find where is the “unbalance”… found it? Then you can have your EV + from your bet!
Another example, the experience:
The bookies like I referred use a lot of computer programs to “give” the odds, and others just follow the “Mother Houses”. A thing that up to today a computer can’t do is simulate a “bettor experience” or a “feeling” of the same.
The calculation formula can be very elaborate, but the human factor is very important. That’s why many of the bettors bet a lot in live, trying to minimize the risk and find the EV + of the bet, but here the top bookmakers have traders verifying those same probabilities which already makes the game “men vs men”.
This analysis takes some time to “win” practice, but with time and our help we are going to be able to reach EV +.
It seems to me that we were clear and very direct when we tried to explain what will be the EV + of each bet in an easy way, without many accounts and explanations in the middle.
Other bettor have other methods, but since they are viable and you manage to find the so famous Expected Value (EV+) of the bet, surely that bettor will have profit in his bets in the short or medium term!