How to evaluate the performance of a tipster
- Updated: 21st November 2019
On the sports betting market, one of the most commonly utilized services by consumers and bettors are the tipsters.
Whether they are paid or free, we always look for tips, picks or analyses from tipsters to help guiding us on unknown markets or to try and find value on betting lines.
How to evaluate the performance of a tipster
But do the bettors know how to evaluate a tipster? Is profit the only way for us to evaluate if a tipster has quality or not? What are the necessary criteria?
Return on Investment – ROI
During many years, this was always the best way to rate a tipster. And not only that: in the financial world, the famous ROI continues being an important indicator to evaluate the profitability of any investment.
Almost everybody knows what ROI is, but to explain it in short, it is the total profit of the operation divided by the total investment made in the process. That means, if you had a profit of 20 Euros and you invested 200 Euros to obtain that profit, your ROI is 10%.
Obviously, the assessment about what would be a respectable and reasonable ROI for the segment of sports betting changes a lot, depending on the perspective and criteria of each person regarding what is enough.
To evaluate a tipster, however, we consider that a consistent ROI of 5 to 10% after 1000 bets is a positive record for any bettor.
A lot of them might present ROI higher than that, especially when they start to bet.
But it’s only over the course of a long period of time and a bigger distribution that we can start to find out the real ability of a certain tipster.
The ROI isn’t the only resource to evaluate the tipster/bettor. We can get to the end of a year and see that a tipster had a ROI of 10%. That is good, right? Theoretically yes.
But if during the year that tipster had huge downswings, depending on bets with high odds and went through a true rollercoaster to reach these results?
Sometimes forcing those that follow him to make several deposits on the bookmakers? Are you prepared for that? Are you capable of following a tipster with these characteristics both emotionally and financially?
That’s why the ROI isn’t everything. The profile is also very important. And I’m not talking about your or the tipster’s profile specifically. The important thing to note is there is a common denominator between these two things.
More conservative bettors will feel more comfortable with conservative tipsters. Aggressive bettors will combine and have a better understanding of aggressive tipsters.
Am I saying that conservative bettors can’t invest with aggressive tipsters? Of course not. But the bettor needs to keep in mind the characteristics of what he is getting into.
It is more or less as somebody that always invested its money into savings and all of sudden starts investing in the stock market. The exposure to risk is very different.
And even if at the end of the process this tipster is lucrative, maybe the bettor doesn’t have the right profile to withstand the demands of obtaining this profit, that way looking for a more compatible mindset with their personality.
If you make 100 bets, the probability of getting interesting results and statistics is very high. That’s because a small sample size doesn’t truly show the performance nuances of bettors and tipsters.
It can be a good or bad period, a selected cut-off that offers a distorted picture of the real ability of those tipsters, whether they are positive or negative.
We will only truly know how good a bettor is after years of activity and thousands of bets made.
The reliable tipsters will have great periods, poor periods, inconsistency. And only this long-term analysis will allow us to have this complete vision.
Of course, we can also follow beginner tipsters that are just starting off. But it is important to keep in mind that successful streaks can present a false impression and recognize the vicissitudes of this kind of bettor.
And maybe over a longer period, they aren’t able to maintain profits consistently. Probably he doesn’t even know himself well enough to know when he will do better or worse. The experience, even for the tipster, will only come with time.
You’ve already heard that sentence that says that even a stopped watch is right twice a day? Well, that can happen with betting analysts too.
Especially today, when everyone wants to start selling tips and miraculous methods as soon as they start to bet. When you follow a tip or a prediction, you are following and “buying” the tipster’s method. It is not only about taking a line and thinking it is interesting. No.
When a tipster suggests a value bet, the odds have certainly gone through an analytical criterion before reaching the public.
A lot of people call it method, others call it insight or even idea. Basically, the guy thought about it and analysed several aspects before announcing it publicly.
When we follow him, we should at least agree with the method that he follows. When we ignore that and focus only on the tip, we lose this more global dimension that is so necessary for analytical work.
By paying for a tipster, we are buying his method. Separating one from the other can generate wrong expectations, since a won bet with a method that we disagree is worse than a lost bet with a method we agree with.
This is a precondition that seems kind of obvious. But sometimes, I see people forgetting such a basic aspect.
When you decide to put your money on the tips or selections of a tipster, you need to at least trust that person.
I left this criterion for last because it will basically be the combination of all the others. Confidence is developed with time and with knowledge.
One last very important reminder: every tipster needs to present their records publicly and tracked by independent websites and auditors.
Careful with their own trackers, screenshots or social media posts. There are several websites, including Insidebet, that offer independent and reliable tracking. Good Luck!