Fair lines and Value bets: The Differences
- Updated: 18th January 2019
Fair lines” and “Value bets”: The Differences
It seems like everything revolves around the same topic, what we bring you here today: Fair lines and Value bets
Since it is very focused on terms that have been very commonly used lately. We’ll approach each one of them, so that the “newer” bettors can understand these concepts and what they are good for.
We will start by analysing what has been trending lately: Fair Lines.
The Fair Lines are very commonly used by professional bettors, since they look for them to enter the market early and extract the value from that Fair Line and even correct their position in-play, for example.
The “Fair line”, in short, is simply the fair probability of the outcome. The Fair Line isn’t an exact science. In fact, it actually really comes down to experience. More precisely, the bettor “sets” its own odds for a determined outcome of a sporting event.
Let’s say that the bettor will have to have the ability to be a bookmaker.
The bettor might be armed with statistics, analysis, tables and its own personal experience when determining the odds for an event.
A very brief example of a “Fair Line” is simple to obtain.
We think about a football match, analyse it and define our odds for the Money Line (1X2), for example:
X – 3.50
2 – 4.20
The bookmaker offers: 1 – 1.85 X- 3.60 2- 4.25
Here we can compare our “Fair line” with the odds offered by the bookmakers. We certainly find a difference, which tells us that our thought process isn’t wrong.
The value is on the home side, that has odds around 1.85 on the bookmaker and 1.68 odds on the “Fair line”. In this case, after the analysis, they have undervalued the possibility of the home side winning.
Let’s say that you see more probability of the home side winning than the bookmaker itself.
That simple analysis, with the “Fair line”, can be very helpful for the bettor, to be certain regarding his method/thought process and find the value of that same bet (which we’ll analyse next).
Fair lines and Value bets: Value Bets:
Here, you often here the more experienced saying: “I see value here, I see value there…”
In fact, the term is very appropriate because “seeing value” is seeing that the bookmakers undervalued the probability of a certain outcome, which means more value/higher odds on that certain outcome according to our analysis.
Taking it step by step, let’s say we analysis a match, and the bookmakers decide that it will be an “Unders” match, with the line at “Under 2.5 Goals”.
But, in your analysis, you think that the match might even have at least 2 goals, or even, going on the correct score, that the match will end 1-1.
Since the odds are low for the “Under” line, the “Overs” normally would follow the opposing trend, which means the odds should be high.
We can for example explore an Over 1.75 or even an “Over 2”. Even because in our analysis, we considered an additional aspect that even tells us that it can finish 1-1, or even 2-1 or 1-2.
Especially on an encounter between two teams that tend to score a lot of goals and also concede.
Or when we are upon a “must win game” for one of the teams. It means that they can overexpose themselves and with that concede a goal or even score.
Another scenario to take into consideration is the BTTS (Both teams to score) that matches the predicted 1-1 result.
This “theory” also applies the other way around, or in the ML (Money Line) for example.
But the true sense of value bets is finding value on the odds “theoretically and technically misadjusted” and take advantage of that same value and betting on the direction of that same value you’ve found.
Fair lines and Value bets: It looks the same, but it isn’t.
Value bets and Fair lines are different things and provide different paths to the same result, which is making a winning bet and going against the bookmaker.
We can say from the start that the fight against a bookmaker is already very uneven, but with a good “Know-How” and with special attention to each game, you might find misadjusted odds be it through your Fair line or looking for value bets.
Therefore, don’t give up, the struggle is daily, but with a lot of attention and especially, and that’s the key to your possible success, a lot of information about the teams you’re analyzing to bet on.
Seeing those teams’ matches might also give you more knowledge of how those two teams might match up against each other.
Managers’ statements are also important,but not always, because you also have to keep in mind there could be mind games taking place as well.
Weigh everything out and try to get more information on your side than what the bookmakers might have, that normally means you need a GOOD computer and “traders” that don’t have a lot of time and have too much to keep good track of.
This might be your key to success. It is not weird that many professional bettors say: “I’ve been studying (…) I’ve been looking through everything and I think I will enter this market.”