Betting with an edge
- Updated: 13th March 2019
This is another exclusive InsideBet article, bringing to you more great study and analysis content in order for you to improve as bettors.
This time, we question and approach a method that is very commonly used by professional bettors, that utilize the news as a true “edge” (advantage) over the bookmakers.
A dedicated bettor, like we’ve said previously, would say that this content could be more relevant for a professional bettor, who can take advantage of the news.
A professional bettor is always a step ahead. Normally, he chooses his matches before-hand and rapidly looks for all the information available.
The bettor keeps getting updated about the news that come out until that same event starts.
News that can tip the balance in favour of one of the teams or that can affect the performance of one of them can offer us that “edge” over the bookmaker.
Before moving onto an example, I should explain that the bookmaker might even be quick, but with so many matches available, it takes some time before they adjust their lines/odds according to the news, that can be relevant or not, which means we should keep an eye on this detail.
I’ll now explain, through a fictional example.
The bettor wants to bet on the football match between A and B on the weekend – Saturday.
On Monday, he starts collecting all the information that is available after the end of the last round. He checks if there was any injury to an important player for example, that will be forced to spend the week recovering.
That situation, if it happens, already leaves the bettor on the back foot. That player might be fit to play or not in the next match, which can be relevant for the bet itself.
Now, the bettor has to keep an eye out for everything, if that certain player will play or not, and start to be “on top” of all the news related to that event. We should also highlight that he needs to pay attention to team A and team B.
Those are the aspects that can give you that “edge” over the bookmakers and continuing with the example: it is also important to know if for example that important player will be available at last minute or not.
Especially if that only happens when the teams go onto the pitch and we are able to see their starting line-up right before the match starts. Another important aspect are the climatic conditions, because if they are adverse, they can really have an impact on a match.
I don’t really take this aspect into consideration, but I highlight that if the conditions are really adverse, I believe this is true. I also weigh in the weather aspect.
Imagine, and this happens a lot on the international matches and/or in the Champions League, where teams are basically in the Summer and then have to travel to Russia, to play with negative temperatures. Here, the body resents itself and a lot of players can even catch a cold.
The mind games of the managers and the press conferences might have a lot of impact but here, you have got to have a more in-depth knowledge, especially of the methods and strategies utilized by the managers.
The press conferences might reveal one or two details that might affect the encounter and that can be really important.
A lot of times, federative decisions also have an impact on the conditions of the match, such as problems on the journey of the visiting team until the city where they will play on. This situation is very frequent in the second divisions.
To give an example, in Brazil, sometimes trips can take up to 7 hours, even by plane
When we are talking about a team from the Brazilian Serie B, with low financial resources, the players surely travel on coach and not 1st class.
This might be one of the most interesting aspects of the news’ world, that can really have an impact on the odds and offer you that “edge” over the bookmaker you’re betting with.
The question if a team will rotate players or play with their reserves might be relevant in terms of “edge”, and here it is important to know who to count with on the starting line-up, and you can only see that right before the start of the match.
Sometimes the list of players can tell us straight away, and as soon as it comes out, that might also be a good example of a potential “edge”, taking advantage of the news.
A lot of bettors don’t bet a small amount of money on the wagers they make, some professional bettors even bet values surrounding the minimum wage.
As it would be expected, that liability forces the bettor to be aware and know what he is doing. And with that added responsibility, he has to keep an eye out for everything that has to do with the match he plans to bet on.
We once again call to our readers’ attention: the bookmakers on their own already have an advantage over the bettors. By being aware of that, it forces you to always try to overtake them about something they didn’t pay attention to or that they’ve underestimated.
The bookies are already in advantage, because they are the ones that offer the odds, the price of a certain outcome for that match. You’re already losing because of this particular aspect.
Going back to the article and how to use the news to leverage us over the bookmakers, the bettor will have to be equipped with all the websites, local newspapers and even weather forecast websites.
We advise you to use the teams’ Twitter, Facebook and even the players’ ones.
Sometimes, a player confidentiality about the next match can be said, or even to understand how his recovery is going.
A crucial point to utilize this method is being on the frontline in terms of news regarding that certain event. If we manage to do that, we are ahead of the bookmakers, because they are slower to adjust according to the news.
Something important to keep in mind is that this “fight” isn’t easy, and as we’ve mentioned, you need to be 100% dedicated and that is only possible for a professional bettor.
But the casual bettor might also have this “edge”, he just needs to receive the news as soon as they start to spread and rapidly define his position on the market and place his bet. Sometimes it can happen, it is rare, but not impossible.
On our analysis, we think that this method should be considered by everyone.
Even not applying it with so much depth, it is always essential to be informed about the match we want to bet on.
We might even not be so informed, but it is important to be close to what might affect our judgement regarding the match and the bet to make.
We evaluate this method as very valid for bettors, whether they are casual or professional because being ahead of the bookmakers is always the best thing that a bettor can do to make his bets and have a higher profitability on his bets.
I hope that this article was once again enlightening and helped you grow as bettors, as well as helped you understand how to utilize this “edge” when placing your bets.